I don't agree with Forsyth that stocks in general are cheap. I do think it's a bit of a stock pickers market if you're value oriented (which necessarily implies you've got to be willing to hold yer breath until value is "unlocked", for years if needed). But buy markets (i.e, indices) to hold long term? NFW. Maybe for 4-6 weeks if you think we're heading into the "4", but there's still a whole great big 5 waves of pain ahead after that. I expect some stratification of leadership in that, and I expect the reflation plays will float up.
Bonds (including corporates) will get torched, maybe spreads narrow a bit but they'll still be losers. As will the munis that Obamaphobes have been hiding in the last few weeks. Seriously, I see municipalities left and right in trouble, here in AZ, in Clownifornia, in the industrial states. I wouldn't buy bonds with yer money....<G>
I agree that the heretofore lightly touched "defensives" will be the best shorts for wave 5. KO, MMM, PG, JNJ, perhaps AAPL/GOOG. Don't ferget, when the cops raid the whorehouse, they bust the good girls with the bad (or is it the piano player?<G>) |
