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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index
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To: TRINDY who wrote (163058)11/9/2008 7:01:27 PM
From: PerspectiveRead Replies (1) of 306849
 
Re SPX double top: I guess I really hadn't given much thought to the implications of this. You can see a six year run off the 1994 base into the 2000 top, then seven years to the 2007 top. The implication would be a decline lasting six years to mirror the 1995-2000 bull. We'd bottom out around 2013, with the SPX back around 400. I actually put a lot of credence into the idea that we ultimately retest that SPX 400 shelf from 1994. That was the date the starting gun was fired for the credit bubble. I actually like 2014 a little more for the ultimate low, thanks to the four-year election cycle. By 2015, a second Obama administration should be spooling up spending for the 2016 elections. Housing will have likely bottomed, and the differential effect of Boomers shifting from savings to consumption should be just about done. Stocks should be completely ignored by then as well.

`BC
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