Liberalism: Do You Agree We've Had Enough of It? Message Board

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Politics : Liberalism: Do You Agree We've Had Enough of It?

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To: Ann Corrigan who wrote (55097)	11/11/2008 9:31:41 AM
From: Kenneth E. Phillipps	2 Recommendations Read Replies (5) of 224763

FiveThirtyEight.com: Franken may be recount's 'prohibitive favorite' By David Brauer \| Published Mon, Nov 10 2008 7:34 am FiveThirtyEight.com, the red-hot election-prediction site that got 49 of 50 states right in the presidential election, says Al Franken's odds of winning the U.S. Senate recount "may be quite strong — in fact, he may be the prohibitive favorite." Polling guru Nate Silver leans on a couple of factors: 1. The percentage of ballots originally uncounted but picked up in a recount; and 2. Franken's support in groups more likely to have mistakenly uncounted votes. There are tables and matrices, but Silver says if there are 0.9 percent more votes following a recount, and Franken wins just 51 percent of them, he has a 93.4 percent chance of winning. There are many more variables, including the ultimate Coleman-Franken recount gap, which as of 7:45 a.m. stands at 221. That figure will change as final county canvasses come in today. [Update: It's already shifting, down to 204 as of 9:30 a.m. Monday.]

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