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Biotech / Medical : CVTX - CV Therapeutics, Inc.

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From: tom pope	11/11/2008 11:52:15 AM
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More from Merrill. Looks like they caught some flak. >>Why we think new label is not a game changer Framing Ranexa opportunity post-label update We have received questions from many investors regarding our below-consensus revenue projections despite the improved labeling. We model US Ranxea sales of $153M vs. consensus’ $175M in 2009E and $177M vs. consensus’ $228M in 2010E. We explain our views in this note. Adding Ranexa = (-1 anginal episode + 13 pills) per week In both CARISA and ERICA, relative to placebo, Ranexa twice-daily decreased mean anginal frequency by one episode per week and mean nitroglycerin use by one dose per week. In other words, by adding Ranexa to their anti-anginal regimen, patients would on average increase weekly pill consumption by net 13 pills (i.e., + 14 Ranexa, -1 nitroglycerin) while reducing weekly anginal episodes and subsequently nitroglycerin usage by one. Modest efficacy offset by pill burden and cost In our view, the majority of patients would find it not worthwhile to take Ranexa long term. While we may see an initial acceleration in Rx trends in the near-term, we would need to see the trends sustained over the long-term in order to project long-term revenue upside relative to consensus.

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