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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory
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To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (10531)11/11/2008 9:14:38 PM
From: stan_hughes  Read Replies (1) of 33421
 
Canadian housing starts data is not a terribly reliable metric at the best of times IMO, not to mention that in the current context of Canada getting "surprised" at what has recently transpired globally, housing starts and asking prices are completely backward-looking statistics that offer little sense of what people are going to do in the future

IOW, watch those starts drop like a friggin' rock in the next few quarters as plans were cancelled once the light went on. Price declines will follow, led by the resale market. Ergo, stocks cut in half + falling house prices = uh-oh

People in a position to know have been telling me for 2 years now that over 50% of the condos in Vancouver are owned by foreigners who only occupy them some 2 or maybe 3 weeks of the year. What do you think is going to happen to the BC RE market when those foreigners now start trying to ditch those units en masse in order to raise cash to cover their losses elsewhere on the planet? IMO it could well rival what happened in e.g. Miami, the lack of US-style exotic mortgage availability notwithstanding

And you probably don't need me to interpret what $50 oil is going to do / has already started doing to Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatoon, etc. house prices, or what GM and/or Ford going down will do to what's left of Ontario. Let's just say that even if the government merely nationalizes the auto industry (versus letting it go outright bankrupt) it's still going to get very ugly in the home of the intrepid beaver

This may have started as a US RE bubble bursting, but everything and everybody is on the hook now
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