Not that anyone asked:
Post election predictions
Let me start by saying that I hope that the Obama administration is a success. The stakes are too high to wish otherwise. Some of the predictions may seem optimistic, particularly on this thread. I have assumed that Obama’s grounding in Chicago politics has taught him that the accumulation of power trumps ideology, at least in the short term.
Like Bill Clinton before him, Obama will initially attempt to govern from the middle, though he will find it difficult to resist the pressure from Congress. The economic crisis will serve to constrain his agenda. If Obama is elected to a second term, I would expect him to move decisively to the left.
Contrary to popular opinion, we have not entered an era of bipartisanship. If we have, why do we need Rahm Emanuel as the White House Chief of Staff? Anyway, Obama will not need Republican support for his legislative agenda unless he is at odds with the Congressional Democrats on specific issues. Actually, I expect his biggest opposition to come from Congressional Democrats. Who is going to write tax policy? Barack Obama or Charlie Rangel? Obama will utilize his campaign mailing list to pressure Congress. Washington D.C. has a new special interest group.
While Obama will appoint some Republicans to his Cabinet, with the possible exception of the Department of Defense, they will not have any significant policy making responsibilities. One of the smartest things Obama could do would be to keep Gates in place.
During the early stages of his administration, Obama will try to project a muscular foreign policy. The withdrawal of our troops from Iraq will be delayed. Obama does not want to be the guy who “lost” Iraq. I hope. When Obama is finally tested, his initial reaction may be to overact. In the long run, I am very pessimistic about Obama’s foreign policy prospects.
In about six months, the mainstream media will finally get around to fully vetting Obama. We will learn a lot about his formative years and the people that mentored him. “Misplaced” videos and papers will emerge and long forgotten acquaintances will fill in some blanks on his resume. Be prepared for a tutorial on Chicago politics. I should add that I do not believe that Obama, while a product of Chicago politics, got “dirty.” Rezko was a near death experience, but Obama was lucky. Two more years as a state senator and he may have been in Fitzgerald’s crosshairs. His downstate legislative record was very light, but Emil Jones, the guy that could fill in a lot of blanks, has retired. Jones will remain silent.
The Obama campaign will return tens of millions of illegal campaign contributions to contributors who will never be identified. Will anyone care? Will we see any legislation to fix the disclosure gaps? I doubt it.
Whatever voter fraud occurred during the election will be, for the most part, ignored. I wonder what Norm Coleman will do during the next stage of his life?
By the end of March, the media will be complaining that the Obama administration, like all those before it, is secretive and not very “open.” The more things change, the more they remain the same. The Obama people will have an enemies list.
Obama will fire most, if not all, of the sitting U.S. Attorneys. It will be okay, though, because we know that all of the Bush appointees were selected on the basis of their political beliefs. Patrick Fitzgerald will not be fired. He will be “promoted” to another position in the Justice Department and the politicians in Illinois, both Republicans and Democrats, will rejoice.
A Democratic Congress will want to criminally prosecute former members of the Bush administration. If this is viewed as an attempt at criminalizing political decisions, as opposed to prosecuting actual crimes, it will be a disaster for the nation and the Democratic Party. I would expect Obama to resist this urge.
We will get “card check” legislation and the Democratic Party will lose the support of small business.
While a Democratic Congress will want to reinstate the so-called Fairness Doctrine they will leave the dirty work to the FCC. Hopefully, the American people will rise up to complain about this restriction on First Amendment rights. If they do, Obama will side with the people, if for no other reason than he can use the prospect of a reinstatement as a club over his conservative critics.
The American people will be thankful that Joe Biden was not at the top of the Democratic ticket. He will be a gift for the late night comics who will still be hesitant to take on Obama. Slow Joe will be surrounded by a small army of handlers.
Obama will talk about guns and Second Amendment rights, but he will not expend any political capital on this issue until his second term.
If anything bad happens during Obama’s administration, it will be George Bush’s fault.
Barack Obama will have a lengthy honeymoon period. Unfortunately, he will not be able to live up to the unrealistic expectations surrounding his election and ultimately some of his followers will lose their faith. “My God,” they will cry, “he bleeds.” |
