Steve-I do not think anyone can use this thread to affect stock prices
The total distribution of information on this thread (and on the aggregate of all SI threads) is so small that even if this was the sole source of information, and everyone who read something good about a stock bought it (or sold it on reading something bad), I think the price would be the same as if SI did not exist. I base my view on the following:
1) In my experience, there are always thousands of people who have real inside information about a company--especially a small cap company. These include the families, friends and associates of: (a) the company's executives; (b) banks that are asked for loans; (c) customers and vendors; (d) professionals who deal with the company such as investment bankers, accountants, lawyers, PR firms, product designers and insurance agencies; (e) professional stock analysts whose job it is to make recommendations of sleeping giants to large investors and who get to do in-person due diligence; and (f) others of this ilk.
2) I would speculate that this stock probably has between 15,000 and 20,000 individual shareholders since there is no reported record of big institutional holdings. That many individuals far exceeds the computer addicts who follow their stocks here, and it seems logical that the majority of the shareholders are within less than 6 degrees of separation from the persons with inside information described above.
3) Even if the majority of the shareholders did read this thread, you can bet they also check in to Motley Fool, AOL and some of the hundreds of other internet and on-line bulletin boards where stocks are discussed; and if something was posted here that startled them, they surely would check elsewhere for confirmation.
4) The advent of free EDGAR, Yahoo Financial sites, on-line brokerages and stock advisers looking for electronic subscribers, means that there are far more reliable places to get information than here. Also, since many things that fuel a stock price depend on matters outside of Wall Street, (such as the status of the BT deal, for example), investors who come here could also check BT's home page, specialized sites for the communications or software industry where shop talk can be overheard, etc.
In short, this thread is in the nature of water cooler conversation, which in my opinion, is rarely considered reliable enough for investors to act upon.
On the other hand, I know that executives in public companies read the SI threads for their companies (because my public corporation clients tell me they do), and I do believe that within the limits of what the executives can do, they are concerned about how it will be reported here. I know also that major financial publications read the threads here too because from time to time, I have been contacted by journalists who got my name from this (or a similar) type of financial discussion forum. |
