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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: Win-Lose-Draw who wrote (173624)	11/18/2008 3:17:52 PM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (2) of 209892

I'd make a distinction between mature and emerging markets - I suspect they can be lumped into separate categories for any number of reasons. So let's look at the Nikkei, which is an obvious precedent. The ROC low was about -45% in 1990, but it hasn't gotten lower than that since. The current reading of -39% would be the lowest since then. Again, makes it hard to make a case for a lot more immediate downside. Speaking of which, there's a potential inverse H&S on the Nikkei... stockcharts.com Edit - I'd also add that the benefit of the Dow's long history is it includes that fat tail/black swan event of 1929-1932 to test on. Not many broad markets have experienced 90% declines.

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