Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 259.21

-4.0%

Dec 12 9:30 AM EST

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To: LemurHouse who wrote (9186)	10/22/1997 4:08:00 PM
From: davesd	Read Replies (2) of 70976

I do not have any specific numbers...but when chips prices keep droping more than expected and companies in Asia keep giving their employees weeks off here and there, you have to wonder. DRAM is the biggest user of cap equipment.....DRAM prices are dropping like a rock....this is a sign of over capacity. In 1994/95 when there was sufficient capacity, DRAM was priced like gold....at this point the price is at production cost. Flash is another area that INTC said that prices were weak, I'm sure it was due to over supply which indicates plenty of capacity. Don't get me wrong, if everyone stopped expanding today....I'm sure we would have capacity problems soon, but remember, most of the stuff that AMAT and others sold the last two quarters is probably not even in production yet, so that's still to come. With what is out there today and with purchases flat for the next few quarters, I think there is going to be enough capacity to get thru the 200/300mm transition. dave

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