CBOE equity put call is over 1, so that's historically "near a bounce" stuff. Index wasn't quite 2-1, but at least it wasn't bullish again.
As I said, I'm really on the fence here -- my best read has us in a iii down so we shouldn't bounce til 780 SPX at the earliest, and probably lower before a real bounce. That said, there are breakdowns all over the place, and while we can look at historic extremes and such, the charts just look horrendous and all have targets that make sense lower. Expiry week is another wild card, though I'd guess we're way below most logical strike prices. I suppose C could be driven to 7.5 or something, but I don't really think C is about option strike prices at this point.
Anyway, if this is the 3 down, it should go to the lower half of the 700s on the SPX, imo, before it's done. But for now.. I'm gonna go eat something chocolate! |
