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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
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To: mishedlo who wrote (90534)11/19/2008 5:48:59 PM
From: Nihontochicken3 Recommendations  Read Replies (2) of 116555
 
Here is a link to a neat utility showing the yield curve as a function of time. Click on the S&P chart on the right to show the yield curve at the time (shadows show the closest previous curves, "trail length" is adjustable). Also you can click "Animate" to show how the yield curve changed with time. It appears that the inverted yield curves in 2000 and 2007 correctly predicted the recessions ahead of time, but apparently in the 2001-2003 recession, the steepest curve, where the curve reversed and started to flatten again, lagged the market bottom by many months, and was not a leading indicator such as were the curve inversions.

stockcharts.com

(Thx to Mr. WS on IV CWEI Forum for flagging this.)

NC
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