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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory
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To: John Pitera who wrote (10608)11/19/2008 7:16:46 PM
From: Jorj X Mckie  Read Replies (1) of 33421
 
JP,
I am active on a non-financial oriented website as well....it is very interesting that the topic there is very often the economy. Yesterday one of the guys on the site who is known for his belief in conspiracy theories started spouting off about the upcoming Kondratieff Winter. This is the same guy who was insisting that oil was going to $1000/brl when it was at $140/brl. On October 10th he liquidated all of his stock investments and put 100% in gold. If you look at the dates, you will see that he entered his gold investment at right about the worst time. Oh yeah, he is also a strong advocate of purchasing guns, ammo and safes. When he said "safes" i was a bit baffled. But then, watching CNBC last night, what did they run but an ad for safes to protect your wealth.

So.....all that to get to this one point. Outside of the fact that I think I have a great contrarian indicator, I am seeing a lot of people who know absolutely nothing about the economy or investing who have become experts on taking defensive investment positions and are predicting the breakdown of society.

Back during the tech boom and the aftermath, there were many (including myself) who were expecting a complete meltdown of the equity markets. The things that I learned from the experience are:
1. Every boom is followed by a bust
2. The boom is never as big as the bulls anticipate and the bust is never as bad as the bears anticipate.
3. Short term trading can have some spectacular short term profits, but in the long term the losses can be nothing short of brutal.

Just my ramblings for today.
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