AJ, off to the woodshed for you to be corrected. -g-
let's see exactly what i said in July and it was not a screaming buy:
1) Looking at the long term charts of MER, MS, UBS, etc is telling me that there are some values being created here and there are some excellent longer term buying opportunities that are arising in a number of premier companies. The problem is that another one or two of them may need to go under to complete the process.
2) "I've beated up and berated financial and bank stocks here for the past couple of years it seems.I'm not saying that today is the bottom and this is not the ninth inning of this bear market; but more than half way through the process..... 7th inning or so?:
you can not call them screaming buys when they have 2 or more innings in which to fall! and I told you they were a little more than halfway through the process... 1/3 of the way to go..... down. which is what they had been doing and have continued to do.
3)The fact that there are still folks who are trying to catch the bottom in these financial stocks shows the psychology of a bottom is not yet fully in place.
yes this has been true.
4) MER --MER is really agressive in raising capital and writing down and selling off CDO's the past couple of days. The thing is the pattern that MER has set will now need to be followed by all the other investment banks and bigger financial firms, mark down these CDO's
they started a process, but the other banks had to do this prior to a low; and it's been an ongoing very messy process.
The fact, that CDS and subprime guru aka the 36 bllion dollar hedge fund run by JP... John Paulson has been realing in his shorts speaks volumes to the fact that so many of these CDO's are buys at 30 cents on the dollar.
5)BUT we'll undeniably look back at this period 12 and 18 months from now and say, yup premier companies like MER, MS, UBS etc where buys in the summerfall of 2008
go and look at the post I put the FALL in BOLD as EMPHASIS as to when the tide would turn.... Those who read me carefully know my use of BOLDING, italics etc are used very specifically to give additional emphasis to my interpretation of what is important/ most salient/ most correct.
6) This is easily the most charitable, positive thing I have had to say on these Investment banks the past 2 years.... so this is a change of pace and the initial indication that my posture and outlook on the credit crisis is changing and I'm evolving away from my very bearish prognostications of the past 18 to 24 months. I'll become more positive as we move forward, and we'll have to see how the market handles the mark downs
As I said very clearl that it'smy initial indication my posture and outlooking on the credit crisis is changing. Starting to move away from my massive bearishness.
I also firmly stated that I would become more postive as we move forward and saw the market handle additional market downs.
Not a screaming bull at all in the summer. I gave 5 to 8 reasons why it would take time and I enboldened the idea that it would be an autumnal low in the financial and stocks over all.
please go back and look at that post closely and tell me how someone who is saying that we still have several bear innings left is a screaming bull.
I have been doing this a long time thus I know it takes lots of time for this stuff to turn.
I don't mind you mentioning my post of late July I really believe it shows me in a positive light of one who changes his market views by degrees and Let me tell you I put a lot of thought into boldfacing the Fall time frame for a low in the Financials and stocks in general.
Financials have come to represent the morass the US equity market has witnessed, the past 2 years.
Message 24802002
so this is a change of pace and the initial indication that my posture and outlook on the credit crisis is changing and I'm evolving away from my very bearish prognostications of the past 18 to 24 months. I'll become more positive as we move forward, and we'll have to see how the market handles the mark downs.
that process occurs months prior to becoming downright bullish......I used to do this type of longer term analysis for Citibank in Australia and for all of our bill, bond, FX Forward FX; FUnding Desk and Swaps desk, they all needed time leads so they could over a periods of days and weeks or more work their way from net short positions to long positions.
We had to have a market deep enough to trade into and they dealers should also be witnessing the same type of bull to bear morphing in Client Institutional orders etc.
find me a post on this thread where I have been a blathering equity bull.
But thanks for keeping me honest,
and MER mergered and never showed up as a buy . UBS; MS may well be veritable values now..... that's still ambigious.
I would not stick all my money in those two GS and expect that to guarantee me a free ride to my large yacht and own island in tahiti.
John |
