Waiting for MOABO...
Another wild ride...
Gold stocks were up an running into the announcement
that an agreement had been reached to bailout the Big 3,
and accelerated with the broad market rally on that news,
but then...
CNBC's John Hardwood broke in live on CNBC and said that
the deal would be a "non-starter" in the Senate, and that
the Big 3 would need to come back with a plan, and
that nothing would happen until January...
The market rolled over and died on Harwood's piece.
And THAT was your cue to cut & run for the exits.
From up +180 to a -444 point close on the DOW.
And it's not just the Big 3, it's Citi.
Citi will get an AIG-esque double TARP dip, or expect
another shotgun marriage in the dark of night.
I blew out nearly EVERYTHING this afternoon, and cashed
in the last of my shorts, other than a non-levered, small
position in the SH short etf.
I'm sitting tonight with the largest cash position I've
ever had... and I'm waiting for "MOABO" (Mother Of All
Buying Opps).
And until I get it... it's small ball, large caps only,
and day trading. I'm not leaving anything sitting over
night to be met with a lock limit down day, because that's
where it seems we're heading.
Today, caught a decent ride in KWK from around $4.80 up through
$5.20 and then it rolled over, and I got stopped out between
$5.08 - $5.10. I blew out all my other energy trades from
this morning on the Harwood piece.
Did catch a nice juicey pop on my main trading position in NEM, AEM,
and KGC from last night and this morning, but grabbed the
money off the table as John Harwood "pee'd in the punch bowl"
this afternoon.... and ended the day mainly in cash, as I think we get
to buy 'em back cheaper again tomorrow.
Jlablo, re: JAG? Gone... stopped out between $2.05 - $1.95.
I'm now only "holding" the big cap majors here, mainly NEM
& ABX, with GG, AEM & KGC in smaller tranches.
NEM is by far my largest position... it's been getting HUGE
"buy on close" orders almost every day on weakness, and I've
got a very good feel for their tape here.
With this type of run to Treasuries and another -5% down
day in the DOW, we could obviously be forming a bottom.
And with mutliple days of resource stocks down in the "teens"
there could be some significant "V-bounces"... BUT, we
could also very easily be teetering on the edge of the abyss,
and be facing a "circuit breaker" day at any moment.
The day trading environment remains, and you MUST take
profits into the first rally you see, because with these
manic intra-day moves, and with these brutal closes that
we've had... POOF~ and they're gone in 30 minutes.
You MUST be monitoring the news, CNBC, and the tape non-stop
to trade this market. And if you can't do that, sit in cash,
or an absolute minimum core position, and hold on to your
physical.
Gold is looking very good here and we could see a fear based
surge at any time, but the stocks are not going to be able
to counter another massive collapse in the DOW.
It almost feels like we're heading towards a final climatic
"lock limit down, or circuit breaker" day... and you want to
be sitting and waiting for it to happen, and not looking for
a way out of it.
Be patient tomorrow... there's a HUGE overhang of negative
fundamentals and news on this market right now, and the
tension is building. It would be hard to imagine that with
the collapse of the biggest bubble in history, that we
reach a bottom without trigger the circuit breakers, or
a lock limit down day that breaks all volume records.
I'm heading out for a quick jog right now, and I'm going to
try to convince myself to hold on to my cash, other than a
very small day trading position.
Think large cap majors with no balance sheet risk.
I like NEM, ABX, and GG if you're going to hold anything
overnight here.
Think - big, safe, cheap, and liquid.
...because that's where you want to be right now.
And be prepared and pre-positioned for MOABO,
because it sure feels like it's coming.
Mo later,
SOTB |
