Let's set some things straight!
> AOL currently has 9 Million customers, with an estimated 30 Million
> customers on the internet worldwide. This is compared to 6 Billion
> people in the world. About half these people have a phone. If 10%
> of individuals with a phone get on the internet over the next 5
> years (very realistic growth), then we're talking about 300 Million
> people on the net, or about 270 Million more people. AOL, at
> minimum, will capture about 25% of these people.
>
> In short, by 2003, AOL will have 100 Million customers, with
> revenues at minimum (not counting Ads) will reach 10 Billion
> dollars annually.
You can't be more wrong. Yes, there are (or will be) 6 billion people on earth, but about 80% are in Asian (China, India, etc). None of these people will be AOL's customer because they don't even have computers. If they use WebTV, they can't be AOL's customer; WebTV uses PPP. People below the age 15 will not have an AOL account. People who can surf the web at work will likely not get an AOL account. Each household will have at most one AOL account. And most household will not be using modem in 5 years. AOL will never have 100 million customers, 15 million, maybe.
Your thinking is exactly why people are still buying AOL. Institutions are driving up the price so they can write calls at ridiculous premium right now. When AOL announces earnings on Nov. 6th, watch out! The sell-off will begin.
Yikes |
