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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (166305)11/22/2008 11:40:55 AM
From: patron_anejo_por_favorRead Replies (1) of 306849
 
The monthly SPX with Fibos he showed at the end was interesting:



We now have a 3 black crows formation on the SPX monthly. Those often retrace to the middle of the 2nd stick, which would correspond nicely with the 38% fibo level, at 1060. That would be a very reasonable target for wave 4 of the bear. My guess is it may have started already or will shortly and last as long as 3-4 months to give Obama a nice honeymoon. Then reality will bite once again as we slide into a hope- destroying wave 5 that will drag us as low as SPX 650 to end the bear next summer or fall. The next bull market stocks and groups will reveal themselves then via outperformance and good relative strength in the 5, we'll all want dry powder for that (although this year end rally is very tradeable in the meantime).
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