Comments on the dollar, gold and the HUI.
For oldsman and other longer term goldbulls.
Back in early April I stated the dollar would rise, and maybe quite a bit. I have followed it fastiduously since. The rise has exceeded my expectations in price and time, and the wave action on the way up has not been as expected.
Hence I have had to rejigger my analysis.
My latest chart is shown below.
img376.imageshack.us
I currently believe the dollar started a downleg in 2002, and that this downleg is a large ABC leg, still in progress.
The first leg, the A ended at the end of 2003.
Since then the dollar has been in a B leg, an inverted triangle. It has completed the abc and d legs, and is working on the e leg. I predict the first e top will end within two months. We will then get a decent dip and a double top towards end of '09. This will then end the 'e' leg, of the B triangle.
Following the end of the double top in the 92 to 93 area the dollar will crash, rapidly, all the way to 60 minus.
Gold will literally explode. Sinclair will once again get in the groove and find his estimates of future gold prices to be low.
I do not believe that the dollar has yet topped, or that gold or the HUI have bottomed. First pivots however come soon with respect to a reasonable time perspective, with the last higher pivots on gold and the HUI right near end of '09.
I also disagree with a lot of comments on the gold trader boards about what to buy and hold, and how to play the future. Just ask yourself how many of these got it right here???
My decisions as to how I intend to play the future are rapidly taking shape, and at present are based to a large extent on the shown dollar chart.
If TheFalcon is correct on this, his wave analysis also predicts that the Obama administration will in essence be a total failure. Inflation if you want to call it that may lie in waiting long enough for Obama to win a second term, who knows on that one, but if the dollar chart goes as predicted we will within another 4 to 5 years be paying unprecedented prices for commodities.
I do my own wave analysis. I do know where Neely (best in the world) and Prechter (far behind Neely) stand on gold. I do not agree with either of them. With respect to the chart posted in #msg-25187011; I would rather believe that gold has been in one very long correction for many many years, and a giant 3rd wave is getting ready to commence. We need to look and plan ahead.
If these observations are true, The World as we know it is going to change, drastically, over the next 10 years or so.
TF
In edit. I use imageshack, and sometimes they mess around and have problems. If these charts do not show up, I will update so that they do.
The chart in the referenced messaged is also found here:
sharelynx.com. |
