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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: pogohere who wrote (99832)	11/23/2008 1:18:00 PM
From: bart13	Read Replies (1) of 110194

We're very much tracking together, and I do intend to track down and review more of Zarlenga's work. Thanks for the heads up. Your other links and observations also echo quite a few of Ben's comments in both the 2002 helo drop paper and also the 2004 paper on ZIRP. It sounds like you got my basic points on deflation, debt deflation, timing, etc, too on my iTulip effort... and I'll raise you at least three more 'no sh*ts' on how tough it is getting a read on the turns and twists. <g> I'm also with you on velocity and also noted in that iTulip post that neither it nor the concept of monetary lags is included. As you probably know, I do track many ways to measure and view velocity on my nowandfutures.com page (there are also some comments on lags on my nowandfutures.com page ). For what its worth, GDP/M3 turned in late 2001 and turned again in July 2008 which lends some credence to an initial turn in 2Q 2009... and also generally agree with your Dec 10-15 target period as a recognition and possible crash period.

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