When was the last time you chose an emerging growth stock that was a 20 bagger?
i don't really invest in growth stocks anymore. i invest in established dividend paying energy stocks in the stock market. i also own various FX, gold, and i had some HF positions i mentioned here.
i'm not sure what "choosing" a particular stock proves. to me the most important thing is how my PF as a whole is doing. if you put all your money in one stock that is a 20-bagger this year, then you are probably doing better than 99.999% of investors this year. however, if at some hazy point in the past, you put some hazy percentage of your assets in a stock that went up 20x over some hazy amount of time, making a hazy percentage of money relative to your PF, and your PF has some hazy performance, then i'm not sure what that proves, or says.
on a PF basis, you would probably not believe my gains since 1999. suffice to say the figure is well north of 20x. this year i am up about 10%. if you've done better than that, then good for you.
personally i think much of performance has to do with luck. i do not believe investors have skill. at the same time, i think the markets are inefficient, so i don't trust that indices or asset classes or individual assets are fairly priced. this means i try to find $100 bills lying on the ground, because i have found them before, but i don't think i have any edge which will let me find future ones better than other investors. in the future, the $100 bills might all be hanging from high tree branches only flying squirrels can reach. |
