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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME
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To: Rande Is who wrote (57511)11/27/2008 9:26:05 AM
From: Rock_nj   of 57584
 
The naked short selling has to be stopped. When naked short selling occurs, the stock market is unbalanced because there are an unlimited number of shares being sold, and down go the stocks. It is totally unfair to longs who brought a stock using valuations based upon the number of shares outstanding and in the float and the earnings and earnings potential of the company. Ending naked short selling and bringing back the uptick rule should restore some sanity to the stock market. Of course, hedge funds who may be in bed with the current SEC benefitted from naked short selling, as they were able to profit tremendously as once healthy company's stocks crumbled to unthinkable levels.

I am thinking that the most likely scenario is perhaps a modest selloff at the end of the year as tax selling takes over. Then a nice rally in January on optomism regarding the Obama administration and a new year. However, by Feburary, when the quarterly reports start coming in from this final dismal quarter of 2008, the stock market will likely tank again in the face of the stark reality, retesting recent lows. The market will be mired with bad news for a time in the late winter and early spring of 2009. Then finally, some real light at the end of the tunnel will emerge as the housing market starts to stabilize and the outlook for the 2nd half of 2009 looks better. Then we could see a good sustained market rally.

This is all conjecture, and as we know since the stock market is affected by so many diverse variables, it could be way off. But that's how it looks to me right now.
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