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Strategies & Market Trends : Longer-Term Market Trends
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To: AllansAlias who wrote (2039)11/27/2008 2:30:35 PM
From: Perspective   of 3209
 
What I can't figure here, and I remember seeing this about a year ago - maybe it was in retailers and homebuilders - is that some sectors have basically already been correcting upward since the October 10th. Look at RTH. It's now priced at its highest point in the past six weeks. It spent much of this year in the 85-95 range, very close to the ATH around 100. It's almost back to 75 now. It just doesn't seem like it's discounting consumergeddon to me. Maybe I'm just too bearish, but I think this is a more serious event than that.

I see my way clear for DJIA/SPX to bounce here, perhaps on the back of commodities and general short covering. But how silly would things have to get for RTH for the rally there to continue much further? OTOH, it would make for a really pretty flat if it topped out around the 50DSMA at $76. But that's just a couple days price movement at this point.

EDIT: Perhaps I can answer my own question. The charts say it would make sense for it to retest the $85 breakdown. Perhaps that's what it does here. I just thought that if it was in a wave 4, it wouldn't overlap with wave 1 lows above.



EDIT#2: It was RTH, back in March. It was at $95. It basically went sideways for the next couple months while the rest of the market bounced upwards. Hmmm...

`BC
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