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Strategies & Market Trends : Longer-Term Market Trends
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To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (2045)11/28/2008 11:00:49 PM
From: Perspective   of 3209
 
Yeah, lotsa stuff up against that line now. Not sure if it'll matter. I think the SPX is even up against it now. Yep, checked it - SPX is against it. COMPQ is against it. RUT poked over it at the close. All of these would turn into decent looking channels if it turned down here. I really don't know. I know resistance lines are *supposed* to hold - the odds bet is to sell the test. But given how much we've fallen, I'm not so sure. On the other hand, when I dig beneath the surface and look at individual issues, so many of them have bounced SO FAR in just four days, I just can't imagine them having the kick necessary to take out a line like this. (Look at some of the REITs - holy cow!) And the dealers have been writing a lot of call options these past few days. I get the distinct impression that everyone is trying to game the seasonality - which would mean we might see the seasonality even earlier this year and be done with it.

One of the other things that keeps bugging me is the relentless nature of the commodity and emerging markets implosion. They've gone down much more than even I had figured, with very few bounces. If similar forces are at work in U.S. stocks, then we channel here.

Oh well, whatever happens, I'll follow along. I don't need to be a hero at this point. I've made my year and then some. Wish my hedging had worked more smoothly. I'd rather be completely flat at this test. Whatever the hell is going on, it's setting up yet another opportunity for the bears.

`BC
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