Spectre of defeat, hasty retreat put party in disarray
JEFFREY SIMPSON
From Monday's Globe and Mail
theglobeandmail.com
December 1, 2008 at 3:47 AM EST
Conservative MPs, plus plenty of rank-and-file Conservatives, are angry and confused about the mess their government created in the past few days. Their fingers are pointing at two men: Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his chief of staff, Guy Giorno.
Since Mr. Harper makes all the important decisions in this government, the manifold miscalculations of Thursday's economic statement were his, aided by his chief of staff, a partisan brawler imported from the old Mike Harris government in Ontario.
Conservative MPs expect to hear criticism from supporters of other parties; they don't expect it from within their own ranks. But they've been getting an earful from Conservatives, who ask how this could have happened, who brought it on and how the government will extricate itself from possible parliamentary defeat?
The stunning prospect of defeat has had the government back-pedalling, contradicting itself and sending different messages since the badly received economic statement - all signs of unplanned retreat and internal disarray, unusual for a government that has prided itself on disciplined messaging.
First, Mr. Harper announced confidence votes will be delayed for a week.
On Saturday, the government backed off the politically incendiary idea of eliminating public subsidies for political parties.
Then, it cancelled a proposed removal of the right to strike from public-sector unions, the largest of which had just accepted a very modest 6-per-cent increase over four years. Then, yesterday, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, whose credibility has plunged after he presented a set of surplus numbers that no one found credible (where was the Finance Department in this foolishness?), announced a Jan. 27 budget, the day after the House returns from its Christmas break. It is likely the government will prorogue Parliament in order to avoid any vote that could cause it to fall.
Somebody, later rather than sooner, is going to pay the price for these miscalculations, because angry Conservatives and a vengeful Prime Minister are a toxic combination.
Perhaps Mr. Harper will take the fall, if indeed the Conservatives lose the government. Or Mr. Giorno, for giving such lousy advice. Or Mr. Flaherty, for pushing such limp policies. Even a few senior civil servants could have their careers stunted by these events.
The Liberals, for their part, certainly succeeded in scaring the Conservatives; now, as they consider their own options, Liberals might be scaring themselves.
New Democrats, of course, desperately want a coalition, under almost any terms, because it offers the only chance the party will ever have to grab a slice of power. But similar grasping eagerness might give thoughtful Liberals pause.
Leader Stéphane Dion wants to stay, in part because, to his enormous surprise, the fall of the Conservatives might make him Prime Minister for a while. Who would ever have imaged such a possibility, after the party's dismal election performance and his own stated intention to leave?
Mr. Dion has been working the phones to shore up support, arguing he can negotiate a deal with the NDP - such as the coalition agreement he apparently reached last night - and will remain until May when the Liberals choose his replacement.
Liberals, when they think coolly, might ask themselves some scary questions: Do Canadians really want Mr. Dion as Prime Minister, having just rejected him overwhelmingly? If the answer is no, how can he be replaced? By whom and how?
If Mr. Dion did become Prime Minister, would he have Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff in his cabinet when they would be running all over the country seeking leadership votes rather than attending to their portfolios? If he were to leave them out of his cabinet, how weak would that cabinet be?
Think, too, what would happen if Mr. Harper were defeated in the House and the Governor-General granted a dissolution and an election. Do the Liberals really want to fight the next campaign with Mr. Dion leading them?
Do they really want to tie themselves to the NDP, a group that has never been in power with a whole bunch of ideas incompatible with those of the Liberals? Do they really want to form a coalition that would be dependent on its parliamentary life on support from the Bloc Québécois, the party that wants to break up Canada but in the meantime would politically extort a king's ransom for Quebec?
The Conservatives have backed down from a few of their follies, and they might yet move more. The Liberals, too, might want to think a little harder. |
