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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 299.81+2.7%Dec 19 4:00 PM EST
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To: Pam who wrote (41943)12/2/2008 10:21:36 AM
From: The Ox1 Recommendation  Read Replies (2) of 95617
 
Sure, but how can one even think about this when revenue and earnings estimates are still being revised downwards for buyers of semiconductor equipment?


That is the key question, imo. It is the one that most people will miss and will only see the answer in hindsight. As we've seen in the past, if you miss the timing of this...if you only see the potential downside, if you only see downside when there are positives to be seen on the horizon, if you only concern yourself with safety, then you will only get answer right after these stock have had substantial up moves that can not be justified by the current, short term view.

EDIT: let me add that you were correct in your view that the fundamentals would deteriorate for WFR...that the stock was telegraphing trouble ahead when the fundies were looking great. At some point when the fundies are awful, the stocks will start to telegraph the rebound. It has not happened yet.

jmo

TO
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