SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: MulhollandDrive who wrote (168505)12/3/2008 11:24:39 AM
From: ChanceIsRead Replies (6) of 306849
 
>>>elizabeth warren is excellent.......collapse of the middle class:<<<

I took the time to watch the video - one hour. It is a must listen. A brief synopsis:

1)Flat/declining real male wages since '71

2) Household income up only because of second income,

3) Despite the above, net income negative - no or negative savings.

3) Expenses: Those which are down - clothing (5%), per car costs (5%), food (5%?). Those which are up - housing (70%), health care insurance (74%), day care (didn't exist in '71), automobile 30% - didn't have/need/use two cars in '71). Note that those expenses which increased are basically inflexible.

4) The family risk profile is way, way up. Both incomes are necessary. The risk of job loss - and resulting default - is greater because two workers are now exposed to the probability of loss of work.

5) Family house costs are way up relative to childless because people will pay a lot more for quality schools.

My interpretation:

1) The US middle class is extended like never before,

2) We will be in a very strongly vicious cycle as more jobs are lost and mortgages default,

3) House prices will continue to fall and there is nothing the government can do about it. Fundamentally the government will have to take over making mortgage payments or replace one salary. Yes we will have the Obama stimulus but there will be little effect for nine months, and it may not occur in the geographic region needed most.

4) The economy will be stagnant for un plus longtemps.

5) Roubini talks "Stag-Deflation." I certainly think he is correct on the stagnation part. Jimmy Rogers says that the current apparent deflation isn't deflation at all - rather a forced sell-off. This is not the prolonged grinding broad price drops of the 1930s. He then talks commodity inflation. I like to think that I am in both camps, but more Rogers than Roubini.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2026 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News