SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Stoctrash who wrote (10788)12/4/2008 9:51:12 PM
From: John Pitera  Read Replies (2) of 33421
 
Hi Stockie and the Board..... S, you know your way around many of these EFT products. I know we have all these bull bear ETF's such as dig and dug, the proshares fiancials? I have not looked recently... particularly whether they have options on these.

With the VIX up here at 60 why are more people not buying a long ETF and a corresponding short ETF and then writing at the money calls against their long position and selling an at the money put on the short position. Options premiums really decay the last 6 weeks prior to expiration.

ditto doing something like that with the Rydex funds? This has really been quite a sustained period of high VIX readings.

we have not seen the VIX this high for this long since the 1987 Crash.

btw, I was looking at the forward strip on Nymex crude, It pricing crude move upward into the $50, $60 and $70's.

back on July 29th of this year I pointed out on here how incredible tight the ranges were on the entire crude forward strip... I interpreteted that as the real Market Professionals and Commercials did know where we where going.

Both CRUDE and Natural Gas reached significant highs and the tops are in in both markets for 2008. This is definitely the case for Natural Gas and highly likely for CRUDE as well.

The CRUDE forward STRIP is incredibly tight with the nearby most active month of Sept 2008 down $2 and change at $122.21. Nov 2008 through Dec of 2009 is a buck or so higher and the Jan of 2013 through Dec 2016 all trades with a 118 handle. The fact that the entire STRIP is so horizontal and the end of the STRIP is so tight shows the real lack of conviction on the long term pricing of CRUDE.

That was a pretty rare forward price structure. The Market has a completely different opinion on what's going to happen to crude over the next several months and several years...
Market has voted that Crude will be go up in price.

Although the levels for the coming 12 months are modest increases.

The info would show up better in a spreadsheet, but I have highlighted a few prices to give us a general idea of what the NyMex Futures are indicating..... interesting.

John

----------
Crude Light Oil Comp. - nymex
Data retrieved at Dec 05 02:44:33 GMT • All quotes are in Greenwich Mean Time • Data provided by eSignal
Contract Month Last Chg Open High Low Volume OpenInt Exchange Date Time
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Jan '09 43.61
-0.06 43.78 43.99 43.39 1904 308710 NYME 12/05/08 02:14:12
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Feb '09 45.15
-0.06 45.31 45.48 44.95 376 102853 NYME 12/05/08 02:13:59
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Mar '09 46.93
0.07 46.90 47.06 46.73 74 69488 NYME 12/05/08 01:16:08
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Apr '09 48.42
-0.01 48.57 48.57 48.30 38 42266 NYME 12/05/08 02:08:11
LIGHT CRUDE OIL May '09 49.90
0.01 49.89 49.90 49.65 33 29011 NYME 12/05/08 02:08:55
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Jun '09 51.00
-0.20 51.25 51.25 51.00 75 109100 NYME 12/05/08 01:43:16
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Jul '09 52.36 y
6150 25010 NYME 12/04/08 20:43:50
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Aug '09 53.42 y
3958 25371 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Sep '09 54.44 y
3124 20468 NYME 12/04/08 20:18:31
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Oct '09 55.43 y
1129 17261 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Nov '09 56.41 y
1189 16027 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Dec '09 57.36 y
19988 105598 NYME 12/04/08 22:14:48
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Jan '10 58.25 y
1074 17178 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Feb '10 59.15 y
289 7972 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Mar '10 60.04 y
0 12233 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Apr '10 60.88 y
0 3124 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL May '10 61.68 y
0 3526 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Jun '10 62.44 y
1300 23613 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Jul '10 63.19 y
69 5354 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Aug '10 63.93 y
12 1786 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Sep '10 64.65 y
12 3802 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Oct '10 65.35 y
14 2303 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Nov '10 66.03 y
30 2300 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Dec '10 66.66 y
6996 58553 NYME 12/04/08 21:19:16
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Jan '11 67.26 y
0 1703 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Feb '11 67.85 y
0 1628 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Mar '11 68.44 y
0 1359 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Apr '11 69.02 y
0 1458 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL May '11 69.56 y
0 1551 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Jun '11 70.07 y
0 20691 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Jul '11 70.56 y
0 1939 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Aug '11 71.02 y
0 1644 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Sep '11 71.46 y
0 1751 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Oct '11 71.88 y
0 992 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Nov '11 72.30 y
0 1007 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Dec '11 72.71 y ,/b>
2050 27817 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Jan '12 73.07 y
0 1421 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Feb '12 73.42 y
0 1095 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Mar '12 73.77 y
0 1877 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Apr '12 74.11 y
0 1090 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL May '12 74.44 y
0 1196 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Jun '12 74.77 y
0 3744 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Jul '12 75.07 y
0 1076 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Aug '12 75.37 y
0 1052 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Sep '12 75.65 y
0 1118 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Oct '12 75.92 y
0 1578 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Nov '12 76.17 y
0 1110 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Dec '12 76.42 y
444 32543 NYME 12/04/08 20:39:04
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Jan '13 76.64 y
0 1056 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Feb '13 76.85 y
0 610 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Mar '13 77.06 y
0 851 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Apr '13 77.26 y
0 551 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL May '13 77.46 y
0 555 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Jun '13 77.66 y
0 1802 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Jul '13 77.86 y
0 555 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Aug '13 78.06 y
0 585 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Sep '13 78.25 y
0 600 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Oct '13 78.44 y
0 624 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Nov '13 78.63 y
0 602 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Dec '13 78.82 y
39 13147 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Jan '14 79.00 y
0 0 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Feb '14 79.17 y
0 0 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Mar '14 79.33 y
0 0 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Apr '14 79.49 y
0 0 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL May '14 79.65 y
0 0 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Jun '14 79.81 y
0 1102 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Jul '14 79.97 y
0 0 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Aug '14 80.13 y
0 0 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Sep '14 80.29 y
0 0 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Oct '14 80.45 y
0 0 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Nov '14 80.61 y
0 0 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Dec '14 80.77 y
0 9493 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Jun '15 81.64 y
0 73 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Dec '15 82.47 y
213 12329 NYME 12/04/08 20:16:54
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Jun '16 83.15 y
0 51 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Dec '16 83.79 y
0 3254 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Jun '17 84.29 y
0 0 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
LIGHT CRUDE OIL Dec '17 84.79 y
0 1 NYME 12/04/08 19:40:56
- Chart - Options - Quotes Save Quote Board
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News