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Politics : Foreign Policy Discussion Thread

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From: Haim R. Branisteanu12/5/2008 6:39:20 AM
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This guy is smart, serious and sincere, so instead I ask about the credit crunch. He answers in fluent, thickly accented English. ‘It is a cancer with metastasis. Or a golem, as we say in the Jewish tradition, a self-animated monster which is out of control. The problem is that nobody really knows what’s happening. The only thing we see for certain is the fear in the bankers’ eyes.’

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But he’s less preoccupied by the Middle East’s future than by the recent past in the former Soviet empire. August’s crisis in Georgia troubled him deeply. The West, he says, made ‘a serious miscalculation about the real nature of Putin’s regime. You’re a fool if you believe Putin will allow any reduction to Russia proper.’

The dream of Russia’s leadership is to revive the westward influence it wielded during the Soviet era. ‘Putin is clearly after a new Yalta. Not a division of Europe, but a “soft Yalta”. In the next ten years the military balance of power in this region will be at stake. You have America and Europe on the one hand and Russia on the other. The territories at issue will be Ukraine, Georgia, the Baltic countries and, alas, probably Poland again.’ Is he anxious about a new Cold War? ‘I am anxious by definition.’

spectator.co.uk
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