Response:
Jim, yes, there are several ways to look at chart patterns forstocks with even only a day of history. However, although there are general chart reading skills that applay to everything, I have found there are specific behaviors to sectors dominated by funds or brokerages or by listing market, and it is valuable to be aware of those first. If you trade in a specific sector, one usually has an unconscious feeling for the trends and movements. Now, for shorter periods, it is better to compare to other stocks new to that sector in the recent 2 years (beyond that is meaningless). Performance within a subindustry is generally patternable - that is one can get a feel for how the market reacts/expects/etc for IPOs for the first 2 years looking at past behavior. For that reason, I don't do IPO's (too much work) or certain sectors, and some sectors only during specific periods (Retail now, energy - first of year, food - never, etc.) Email me if you want more info - I don't want to intrude on the thread with this.
As for my personal experiences, my best year was 1100%, and my worst was -100% (80-81 time frame was NOT a time to be heavily margined...). I have no calculation of average performance - you'll have to ask my ex for that. Whatever she ltells you divide by at lest two. I run multiple trading accounts on line and differentiate them by high risk/small cap, standard (stuff I post here) and speculative. I have set up accounts with as little as $2 grand, but average $6 grand in each every year. I clear them quarterly for tax purposes, unless its unrealized gain or loss (loss...we are many, and our name is legion...). I am frequently both completely vested and completely out of the market. I don't trade full time but use real time data to enter and exit equities. I don't do options and rarely short. I have gone as long as 9 months without trading, but mostly that was due to overseas business travel.
I've made a decision to leave my present position and do one of two things - either make a significant career move or trade full time. I'm leary about doing the latter as I take too many risks. I was approached by a Partner at Anderson Consulting to work on accounts for NYSE, NASDAQ, brokerages, etc doing advanced systems development, but turned it down (you don't want my opinion of consultants or living in NYC). But I digress...
The average life cycle of a day trader is 9 months before burnout sets in. Joe Copia is a rare exception, as are a few others on this thread like Alien, Esposito, Weiss, Ed Forrest and of course the lovely and talented Jenna. Forgive me for whoever I left out, I'm tired. The bottom line is most people are vague because they are doing average at it, which in this business is doing great in my opinion. Everyone makes great trades, and every one craps out. If I could gross $300k a year doing this, I would do it full time. And those who do, don't post to threads OR write newsletters...
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