TJ, it's so fun to say I told you so. Have you noticed that oil is nearer $40 a barrel than $200, as predicted by Mq the Marvelous?
SUVs, 747s and ships are being parked as people find their previous perceived position in financial relativity theory was not what they thought.
It turns out that borrowed money is not wealth. A few hundred years ago an Englishe gentleman commented on how it's best not to be either a borrower or a lender because husbandry is defenestrated along with friendship. It turns out his comments didn't just apply to the 15th century.
<Light, sweet crude for January delivery was down $1.43 at $42.24 a barrel -- nearly a 4 year low -- in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by afternoon in Europe after going as low as $42.05 on release of the jobs statistics. The contract fell $3.12 overnight to settle at $43.67, the lowest since January 2005.
"Baby it's cold out there ... on the NYMEX that is," wrote trader and analyst Stephen Schork in his Schork Report. "Given how weak price action is there, last night's 15 F (-9 C) temps in Chicago seem downright balmy."
Oil prices have fallen about 70 percent since peaking at $147.27 in July. >
Quarter of a century ago I was running various alternative energy programmes for BP Oil. The current situation is reminiscent of that. I was rapidly shutting them down after not long in the process as it was obvious that they were uneconomic activities. Burning oil is a good way to get energy. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Venezuela and China can produce energy really cheaply. It doesn't make sense to use expensive means to produce energy when very cheap ones are available.
I love photovoltaics and the idea of silicon and other semi conductors being dug out of the dirt and turned into electricity producing "leaves" covering deserts and all sorts of places. But with oil at $10 a barrel, it's not going to be competitive [not yet anyway in most places]. Even at $40 a barrel, alternative energy programmes are in big trouble.
BP Solar was flat out on photovoltaics back in the day and making good money, but in limited applications. I was a fan club member then and still am. I love the idea of fusion too! But BP's fusion programmes have not generated cheap electricity yet. We already have a big fusion reactor - sitting right there in the sky. Collecting the output is the trick. It's free for anyone who wants to go to the trouble of collecting it.
Sol is having a rest period and quite a big one at that. I have predicted a Little Ice Age starting this northern winter and so far, given the snow in England, we are on track. The next sun spot cycle should be like 1812's. Which was cold and not good for Napoleon to conquer Russia ... brrr....
Don't worry about Global Warming and the Greenhouse Effect. People are cutting back on CO2 production and it doesn't cause warming anyway [not the small output by humans]. Worry about how cold it will be in Beijing with an Ice Age. Genghis did well because of global warming back in they day. It got cold again later and the Little Ice Age must have been bleak up north. Cold and snow have large geopolitical effects.
Mqurice |
