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Biotech / Medical : OSI Pharmaceuticals (OSIP) - formerly Oncogene

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From: tom pope12/5/2008 12:33:07 PM
   of 447
 
Merrill

Tarceva expansion still key to growth, pipeline is long-term
The R&D day showed that Tarceva label expansion remains the key potential
growth driver while other oncology and diabetes/obesity candidates are in early
stage development (see pipeline chart). Separately, we lowered our P.O. to $44
from $48 on weak market conditions. Maintain Neutral.

Expects to file SATURN data in 1H09
OSIP is working through the SATURN data which met the primary endpoint in the
NSCLC (non-small cell lung cancer) maintenance setting but we await the details
to assess clinical importance. OSIP expects to file for label expansion in 1H09.
Oncology and diabetes/obesity pipeline early stages
We find OSIP-906, an oral inhibitor of IGF-1R (insulin growth factor-1 receptor) in
three phase l trials for solid tumors, and PSN-821, an oral G-protein coupled
receptor agonist in phase l development interesting but they are in early stages.

Tarceva ANDA with paragraph IV expected
OSIP noted that we could see an ANDA (abbreviated new drug application) filing
against Tarceva’s composition of matter ‘498 patent (expires 2018) in the next few
months, which would likely prompt a patent infringement lawsuit (would take
several years to resolve, in our view). (see details in note).

Maintain Neutral
We maintain our Neutral rating as the competitive landscape for Tarceva is sorted
out in NSCLC and US scripts remain flattish. We look for any upticks if the
detailed SATURN data is clinically meaningful. Separately, we lowered our P.O.
to $44 (17x ‘09e EPS $2.59 (excl. any accounting changes, see note) from $48.
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