Mr. GOTO'S REPORTS ON NIKON THAT INCLUDE CYMER
This may not be the best moment for this. I hope earnings are good tomorrow since I am long, but I said I'd post Mr. Goto's reports. There are 3 related parts: (1) a general company analysis, which I am not going copy, (2) the downgrade on Nikon on 9/11, and (3) the note on using Komatsu lasers 10/6. If anyone who is well-known on this thread posts a fax number, I will send them all the materials to review. If one or two do so, they could authenticate my post and verify that I have exerpted appropriately.
9/11
--SUMMARY--Nikon
- We are downgrading Nikon to 4-H from 3-H. The problems relating to the KrF lasers are likely to cause a major delay in Nikon's stepper shipments over the next 3 to 6 months.
- While this should not change the long-term earnings prospects for steppers, Nikon is likely to undershoot its own shipments and earnings forecasts for the year.
- The problems with KrF lasers do not appear significant enough to require a major re-designing of the laser or the stepper.
- This problem may cause moderate push-outs of some of the ,25 micron fab starts and delay shipment of SPEs for these fabs.
--OPINION
[general statement]
The laser Problems
Though Cyner and Nikon are refusing any public comments as the what the problems are, there appear to be multiple problems with the Cymer laser that is used in Nikon's steppers, including possible gas leaks. Cymer has acknowledged that the company is shipping retro-fit packages, called "Big 5 Upgrade Kit," that would improve and stabilize the laser performance. Our contact in Korea is indicating that 1 stepper at one of Samsung's fabs will be the first to receive this upgrade modification over the next week or two... Our understanding is that even if the upgrade goes smoothly, it would require a considerable number of days to retune both the laser and the stepper. If the modification at Samsung proves successful, all the eximer lasers shipped to date of over 100 units will be upgraded. Though we have no way of knowing how long the entire upgrading program will take, it will divert alot of valuable production time away from the Nikon plant to service work at the users sites. Also, we are not certain how much of the upgrading costs will have to be picked up by Nikon v, Cymer. Regradless, we feel this will have material impacts on Nikon's current year earnings.
[Comments on reducted shipments, dowm from about 240 to 190 units. Comments extrapolating earnings effexts]
10/6
--SUMMARY--Nikon
- Although Nikon appears to have secured supply of some eximer lasers from Komatsu in response to problems with Cymer models, the change does not come fast enough to improve prospects for FY97
- We are reiterating our 4-H opinion on the shares
--OPINION
Nikon has confirmed that it will begin using KrF lasers supplied by Komatsu. Although the two companies do not appear to have agreed on any firm shipment schedule in terms of units, we believe Nikon will take most, if not all, of the 21 units that Komatsu has scheduled to build in the Jan-Mar 1998 quarter. There may be room for a small number of additional units, but, given the difficulties of tooling up the eximer laser production lines, we do not expect any major upward variance.
[Paragraph on the problem of inadequate throughput and the possible consequence of loosing market share to ASMLF]
Our research shows that Komatsu's KrF laser has performance specifications that far exceed those of Cymer lasers. The on-going performance testing at the Komatsu plant has shown that their lasers could operate comfortably at up to 5 billion shots, if not more, compared to about half this number for Cymer lasers. Also, the beam stability (variances in output beam energy) of Komatsu lasers appears to be far superior... In short, Komatsu appears to have achieved a level of performance that was unthinkable in the past. The challenge for Komatsu from here on is to make certain that production processes are maintained tight enough to ensure uniform and stable operational quality in all the lasers they ship. This would help avoid unexpected trouble in the field, where Cymer now appeats to be having problems. |
