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Strategies & Market Trends : Commercial Real Estate tic.............tic,,,

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To: Smiling Bob who wrote (100)12/7/2008 11:12:37 AM
From: Perspective   of 442
 
More on "O": They appear to have a decent balance sheet, 1.5B debt against

The interesting part is cash flow. Their model has made substantial use of the capital markets, either for borrowing or stock issuance. So they are not cash flow generators. They have been borrowing money to keep the model going:

finance.yahoo.com

Remember when I asked which REITs had acquired a bunch of property near the bubble peak? Look at the balance sheet expansion in 2005-7:

finance.yahoo.com

So they're carrying a bunch of the commercial RE risk for a variety of large retail chains. Their margins are pretty wide; they cover interest like 4:1. I know there is a huge arbitrage because they are a diversified pseudo-retailer that can therefore borrow much more cheaply, but something tells me that the retailers are also doing this to offload a ton of risk from their shoulders. Wouldn't matter in normal times, but in a concerted consumer recession?

They may not have imminent debt problems, but this looks like a nice commercial REIT short to me.

`BC
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