Well, well! How come I haven't found this thread before? I presume that the reason it is here is to determine the right time to sell, as opposed to the right time to buy. So much more comforting for an antipodean Jeremiah like myself.....
My opening $0.02 (all to be prefaced with IMHO):
The "Borland turnaround" is still in progress, i.e. it has not happened yet. This is consistent with Del Yocam's own statements, but the "longs" seem to think this is just the man's innate modesty. Thus far, he has reduced expenses in line with revenue streams, and cleaned up the balance sheet. Both worthwhile actions, and very well executed. But they are reactions to past events, not - as some would propose - guaranteeing the long term security, or even viability, of the company.
The product strategy has not changed over the past eighteen months. Again, that is not to say that it needs to change, simply that there is no "new Borland", just a tidier and more fiscally conservative "old Borland".
To complete the work that has been started, there needs to be a great deal more evidence than currently exists that the company is "enterprise-ready", and not simply a consumer-software company with an enterprise veneer pasted over it. Disconcertingly, there is some evidence that the company's traditional business model (boxed product through retailers via distributors) is being dismantled before a credible replacement structure (e.g. licensed product through direct sales and systems integrators) is properly defined, let alone fully in place and operational.
This stock (a reinforcing IMHO is appropriate here) will remain volatile for many quarters yet. This quarter's new products are not category-killers, so sales of D3 and JBuilder will still be key to revenues. If - as described in the results PR - the future rests on the company's ability to appeal to corporates rather than programmers, there's still some distance to travel.
david |
