hello pezz, today's report:
(i) just in in-tray from ceo friend of small hedge fund i am in in a small way, and i quote
Dear All, Flash report:
Tai Tam returned gross absolute returns of -0.23% in November, 54.62% YTD. Since our inception on Aug 2007, we’ve achieved 59.5% gross compounded annualized return, a Sharpe ratio of 1.47 and -2% correlation to S&P500.
We are currently on a business trip and will provide the full monthly report later this week.
(ii) i think 2009 could be OK.
however, must ask but one question
"what if i am wrong?"
i must be suspicious of a supposed macro tsunami having run its progression, and yet hk real estate is just 30-50% off peak, effectively returning to just 2007 (as opposed to 2003, requiring additional 75% down) price level
dunno, but have time to ponder
(iii) just received e-mail from group ceo buddy of many years, and again i quote:
Down big number, in the range of 30%+ overall, not counting real estate holdings, because of margin. Have resigned in September with 6 months' notice, last day Match 8. Seem to be repeating timing in quitting, 1998 summer, 2000 autumn & September 2008!!
(iv) recommendation: be yourself, but less so, in a more considered way.
cheers, tj
p.s. having noted all of the above, 2009 will probably be an up 25% year.
as mentioned earlier, the true crisis might still be some 5-7 years off. |
