SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: anializer who wrote (32972)12/8/2008 10:37:34 PM
From: Tapcon  Read Replies (1) of 78751
 
I listened to the whole segment and came away thinking there's a fair share of b.s. to this guy, saying his view is that the situation will be worse than what Nouriel Roubini has been touting. And acting like he was the only one that saw this thing coming -- he could have spent time since 2004 reading all about it right here on SI in the Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble thread.

But the reason I hung in there to the end was to hear what he had to say about how much hedge fund liquidation was yet to unwind. Even Charlie Rose expressed his frustration at not being able to get more than a general answer whenever he's asked one of these doom and gloom experts to specify what will happen, what will be the consequences, how long will it last. Taleb was very evasive in response.

That seems to be the great unknown. I've heard the de-leveraging that has to occur described as massive by Faber, Roubini, Taleb, Zulauf.... But nobody seems willing or able to give any kind of ordinal order of magnitude. So how do we know whether it is almost over or not!?

I'm skeptical of Taleb's "end of capitalism 1" scenario. What I'm trying to figure is whether to play this as a severe recession or another depression. My inclination is to NOT play it as another great depression. Why? Ironically, it does not seem to be a good strategy to bank on a tail event.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News