I am still in SRS as I think the comm'l real estate market is rancid, will become putrid very soon and will ultimately [within 6-8 months] become almost non-existent.
We are likely to see a ruthless, fraudulent bear market rally for the next few weeks. Then, kaboom! the bear trap will close shut without a hint of a warning, leaving the bleeding, the decapitated and the lame in its wake. The only thing to do is to sell, sell and sell again into any rally so as to have cash and gold and silver and the beat-up mining companies which produce same on hand to weather the storm.
The macro is simply much too dismal for anything else to take place.
Short vehicles, like SRS, FAZ and SKF, can become very profitable playthings if used prudently.
I am more or less following Taleb's advice, though I had done so before I learned of it, and that is to be exceptionally conservative for most of the PF but put a small portion of it into wildly risky stuff. No middling risk at all for what may seem middling now is, in view of the macro fundamentals, likely to contain a toxic Black Swan which will ruin everything.
Edit: I see you are in GDX. So am I, in the 22s.I also really, really like silver, esp. its miners. Am currently in Hecla. It burned me a few months ago, but like a moth to the flame, I returned at 1.33 on Nov. 14. |
