Wow...my ears must have been burning!!!! <G>.
Dear all,
I apologize for my sudden drop off SI. It is a long story, but it basically deals with getting a new computer, giving my old one to a friend and my new computer arriving DOA. You may have noticed that I haven't been able to post anywhere on SI, not just the Oakley board. In the middle of this, I changed by ISP, just in case someone has tried to e-mail and got no response. I had been checking and sending my e-mail through my office computer which hasn't given me the opportunity to get back on SI. I got my home computer back up Monday, and this is the first time I have had a chance to sit down and check in.
I wanted to address some points. I haven't had a chance to read all the posts I missed, I have just scanned them, so I apologize if some of this has already been addressed.
1. PUUUULLLLEEEAAAASSSSEEEE.....I do NOT own Oakley. I posted what I thought was an obviously sarcastic message (#1051), but I did not buy OO. Anybody who knows me or has followed my posts over the last year on SI knows that there's not a "long term" bone in my body. Nor would I buy any stock without good technicals. I thought this would have been obvious, sorry for the confusion.
2. Dr. Jeff.....Okay buddy, we get the point, you hate Oakley, let it go <G>.
3. Thanks to Henry Brookins' influence (by the way, the model portfolio in his daily alert newsletter, is
up about 86% this year), I have decided to re-evaluate my TA only approach. Henry screens his stock
with fundamentals, and then applies TA for entry and exits. I already screened RS > 80 and EPS >
70 before I used TA for entry/exits, but Henry goes even further into fundamentals to filter before he
uses TA. Let me emphasize that TA remains the most important part of this process because it gives
you the objectivity that FA lacks. And it will rule out stocks that are moving badly no matter what
the fundies say. It will also limit your potential losses.
4. Let me give you a little insight into short selling. Each week they do a survey of the top money
managers to see if they are bullish, neutral, or bearish. There is an EXTREMELY HIGH reverse
correlation between the number and how the market moves. Meaning, if there is a high percentage
of advisers who are bullish, it is a bearish indicator for the market. This is because if the majority
are bullish, they a fully invested, and thus there is very little money left to come into the market to
move/sustain it. It is a highly accurate reverse indicator, which bears out over time (another tip from
Henry, have you subscribe to his newsletter yet?) Short selling often works the same way . When
short sales numbers come out, those people have already sold their stock, and theoretically
already moved the stock. Those numbers are old news. They can only help spur on a "short squeeze"
when good news comes out. Someone posted in regards to OO's short numbers.
5. Remember, it is always darkest before the dawn. I would venture to say that OO's worst times are
behind it. Shoes are a big question mark, but remember something. Jannard is a billionaire
(according to the current issue of the Forbes 400, where they actually have a picture of him) and was
a "two billionaire" last year. He is tied for 148th, meaning he is in the top 150 richest Americans. That
did not happen by luck. You can get a few million by being lucky, maybe even hit high 8 digits, but
you don't become a billionaire without having some serious business sense, which might be beyond
our ability to see (are any of us billionaires here)? Lawsuit, well that is what insurance is for. A
non-factor. If they have in fact instituted a new supply system with Sunglass Hut and have opened up
500 new accounts, that will solve some big problems. International sales seem to be growing even
with the handicap of a very strong dollar.
6. Here is what I plan to do tomorrow, and some might think about it as well. If OO does not break
10.0 tomorrow, I will buy it, and sell the corresponding amount of the near calls. I am looking
for OO to test the 8 3/8-8 « level where I would buy back the calls (unless they have expired).
At that point, if OO holds it support, I would stay long. If it breaks, I sell. If OO continues up after
I sell the calls, it gets called away at 10.00 (which is fine because I don't want to own OO anyway)
and I take the profit on the stock and the calls. I think a break below 8 3/8 is very unlikely. I think OO will test it and set up and double bottom which is bullish. That is what TA tells me. OO has
broken its daily support line, BUT it is sitting on its weekly support line, which is more important, so tomorrow and Friday will be very critical to short term direction.
If the bad stuff is really done at OO expect some analysts upgrades. None have ever gone below a "hold" even at OO's worst. Some even still have "long term accumulates" on it. They have a lot of
clients who have bought OO, and they want any excuse to move it up so they don't look bad.
Of course all this doesn't mean anything. OO will do what it wants. If you don't trade, there are a lot of better stocks out there to be in. But TA will keep you from getting screwed if you do buy OO, no matter which way it goes.
By the way, it is about a year since this thread began. I think that is more than enough time to prove out whether a concept works or not. I think all those who knocked TA months ago when it was showing that that OO was a stock to get out of, know that they were wrong with all their hope about Jordan, and X-Metals, and Nike buyouts having anything to do with price. They are mostly gone now, off to lose their money on the next stock they see on the cover of Money magazine, but they know who they are. If they are smart, they will have learned to use TA. And they have learned to "learn" from those like Grass, Dr. Jeff, Maria, etc..
By the way, my new e-mail address is: bclund@earthlink.net
BCL
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