david-
NOW, i'm a broken modem. actually, i'm not broken. i just use ADSL technology while you are still stuck at 2400 baud.
i guess if you include all the divisions AND muei, it is 6 billion. wow. that makes them a tenth the size of samsung.
applejacks has nothing to do with cost cutting. the ENGINEERS did it. i give tyler lowery more credit than i would ever give applejacks. cutting costs is what EVERY company does. there is no special award for that, no merit badge. its called doing your job. my problem is that applejacks doesnt have the vision to take the company ANY further afield. he's been there for years, yet their FED technology goes no where. by the time MU is making FED watch displays, candescent will be making televisions with the technology. did he ever think to, oh, i dont know, GET OUT OF THE COMMODITY BUSINESS? TI did.
wow, what leadership on applejacks part, the bravery of staying in a heavily cyclical industry. that kind of managerial panache makes companies dead.why didnt he think of undercutting the competition on the next generation (i.e., beating the asians to market with cheaper 64Mb chips. believe it or not, the only thing propping up the 16Mb market is MU. they had a perfect opportunity to force the transition and crush the competition)? that would have made MU a 10 billion dollar company. of course, with all the working out he probably didnt have time to think of it. face it, he's a moron.
let me ask you a question. if i am loosing money per unit, with cost reductions (production, etc.) maxed out, how does higher volume translate into earnings?answer: it doesnt.
oh, but they will take market share, right? they will OWN the 16Mb market, of that i have no doubt. the problem is that market is becoming less important weekly. what you see as canny timing of the market is in fact the desperate actions of an also ran (although this is an also ran i will own shares in by the end of 98. why? because they will be making money and the short term future will look good, in contrast to NOW).
we are no where near the end of the dip for this cycle. the low in the cycle is after transition occurs to the next generation. its close, but not here yet. like i said, give it a couple of q's to the low, then buy all you can.
what indicators are YOU looking at to predict the end of the cycle and the onset of upsurge? GIVE US SOMETHING TO WORK WITH FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BEFORE SAYING WE DONT LISTEN. we'll listen, just say something worthwhile, something other than an oblique criticsm of what we say. of course, we may tear you apart....but thats only right. especially since its all you've done to us, albeit not at all effectively.
good luck to all,
trey |
