re ARW, AVT, electronics distributors
re: "I've been satisfied with results obtained from a formulaic approach applied to a package of these stocks."
I stand by my statement, but as I dig back further now, I'm not so sure I should be so satisfied. Good results for ARW/AVT--- now though I am recalling big losses with SEMI, plus the time value of money tied up in some of these other smaller distributors (even if $ amounts invested were small). Some were done in an ira, and I've got no records of transactions (as I do with tax records for non-ira stuff). Perhaps "selective memory" is really operating here, and I'm not doing so okay as I seem to believe with my formula.
For AVT: here's a Yahoo graph:
finance.yahoo.com
Here's your current comment: "Looking back at 2001/2002 it seems that ARW,AVT made losses due to the cost of rightsizing their business after the dotcom boom, not due to credit risk. I expect the same thing will happen in Y2009."
I suspect you could be correct, and if so, that the business and stock will improve by, or in, 2010. I am just playing what I hope to be is the cycle.
Fwiw, here's my post where I was buying AVT in Sept '02 based on my simple formula.
Message 17953242
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