In case anyone's reading this, the stock did make a big move, but in the wrong direction as the data presented didn't put the drug in the best light. The Analyst's seemed very impressed, but investors didn't.
At the current price I believe the stock's a steal, here's why. Prior to the data presentation I had the privilege of having lunch with one of the Clinicians who's running the trial, Dr. Henz from USC. Lunch was at the Pancreatic Cancer Symposium in Los Angeles, and he was the speaker after lunch. I didn't press him during lunch but made it clear that I had an investment in the company. During lunch I also heard from someone else working at another clinical site, she said the drug had resulted in patients being resected.
Many of the presenters stressed that resection, the Whipple procedure, was the most successful medical procedure they had, but could only be done successfully if the cancer was small enough to be completely removed. All the patients entering the trial were not candidates for the Whipple before entering the trial, in the trial their cancers shrunk to the point the Whipple procedure could be done.
When I first arrived at the conference I looked through the presentations, which were given us in a package, I went first to Dr. Lenz's and found it made no reference to TNFerade. During lunch it was clear he was impressed with it, but I didn't press as to why. In his presentation he added and changed a few slides, one was added on TNFerade specifically which also indicated resections had been achieved.
I strongly believe the 92 event data was much stronger than the way Investors interpreted it. Don't concern yourself with the fact that the percentage was the same at 24 months, their are so few that have been in the trial 24 months the percent surviving there represents no more than 5 people total. Look at 12 and 18 months, at 18 for the SOC the percent alive is the same as at 24, six month from now it can only stay the same or diminish. At 18 months the TNFerade group had roughly three times as many alive, it's potential to remain substantially higher 6 months later is very good.
A partnerships really the next big news that should come from the company, but more complete data may proceed it. There is a smaller ASCO conference in January that includes Pancreatic Cancer where some, or all the data might be presented. Otherwise the major ASCO Conference is normally in late May and early June. All companies like to present at the major ASCO conference so we really don't know what the company's planning, but I believe when all the data's seen people will be far more impressed then the tidbits released thus far.
Gary |
