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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis
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To: Real Man who wrote (15606)12/18/2008 1:04:47 PM
From: Nevada99994 Recommendations  Read Replies (1) of 71477
 
I agree that commodities will be subdued by a global recession. Still, they look like a good relative value relative to other assets because they are at or below their prices 30 years ago in inflation adjusted terms. That said, not all commodities are equal. A global recession will kill demand for some and not others. The US may not need to build homes or autos for years. An average home in the US would house a couple dozen people in many countries. Sounds unlikely, but it could happen here. Cubans drive the same cars they did 50 years ago. I'm afraid some attitude adjustments are coming with regard to standard of living. That's bad for copper, zinc, nickel, lumber etc. Existing homes may be heated and autos driven that's better for oil and gas. Lots of people will still eat. That's good for agriculture. There is still a lot of wealth to be preserved. That's good for gold and probably silver. Guess at how bad it will get and pick your commodities accordingly.
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