SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
From: gregor_us12/21/2008 8:00:12 PM
  Read Replies (5) of 71410
 
How About a Yen Crash? Seems the last thing anyone expects is for the JPY to weaken or especially weaken significantly against a range of forex and let's include gold and silver in that.

Granted, every major currency now wants to weaken. So, it's not easy for anything to crash. That said, if you look at the history of the JPY since their bubble burst, whenever the Yen made a spike high against the USD it was accompanied by a Nikkei low. And then came a stunning JPY reversal with an enormous rally in the Nikkei.

I think the JPY could weaken big time against every major and especially commodity currencies like AUD and CAD, and then I think it could also put some fire underneath gold and silver.

I don't disagree that Yen strength has been a pain-trade for decades. However, this year has pushed a ton of new money into the JPY on the long side looking to ride the Deflation Trade. Some of that money would might otherwise have gone into gold, some Swiss Francs, and some AUD and CAD.

Japan just released data showing their exports tanked. I now think that the Japanese govt, since it is willing to buy equities in Tokyo, is likely to start buying assets in a basket of forex. This will tell Mrs Watanabe that she had better start thinking of getting out of Yen, again. What the last few decades shows is that when Yen spikes higher turn to Yen down moves lower, the rate of change and the move is intense.

G
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News