This is an amazing blog post - it's a must read
Packers Philosophical Blunders 2008
=====
1. Ari Fleischer
2. Trading Favre
3. Paying Rodgers
4. Paying Grant
5. Paying Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila
6. Defensive Line
7. Offensive Line
8. Punter Jon Ryan
9. Point-of-attack/Game Speed
10. Tight End Utilization
=====
1. Ari Fleischer
The hiring of Ari Fleischer was the single best example of the Green Bay Packers philosophical mismanagement in 2008. The move demonstrated that Packers management had committed time and resources into a person that COULD NOT assist the team in resolving their quarterback crisis because his specialty is NOT NFL football. Fleischer could help craft public statements by the team, but ultimately his involvement could only hinder the resolution of the substantive issues involved with Favre's re-entrance into the league.
The opportunity cost to the Packers of every dollar spent on Ari Fleischer was exactly one dollar, because that dollar could have been spent evaluating the trade ramifications - or on another service of team benefit - rather than waisting resources pitching management's decision to the public and media at large.
How could trading Favre rank second to hiring Ari Fleischer in importance from a philosophical perspective? Well, if the philosophy of management is to improve the team, then that philosophy is not necessarily compromised by trading Favre, but the hiring of Fleischer demonstrated a disregard for objective analysis of trade implications, favoring investment in political justifications, instead. Spending money to explain an 'ownership' decision to the public that would otherwise be spent in a potential benefit for the team is a detriment to objective management philosophy. Fan and media support for the team is predicated on 65 years of history and winning football games, not political support for managerial and administrative decisions.
The unlikely Ari Fleischer tops the list of philosophical blunders because trading Favre only becomes a monumental philosophical blunder when factored in with blunder number three, paying Aaron Rodgers similar monies in 2008 without similar achievement to Favre's record or playoff progress from 2007!
Two words - Wasted Money
2. Trading Favre
Lost in all the clamor of the Favre fiasco were the pertinent details. Favre was slated to make about 20 million, Rodgers a mere $667,000. So, justifiably the team could trade Favre, IF the team maintained a similar record and playoff progress OR Rodgers clearly outperformed Favre statistically/spectacularly on different teams OR the team SAVED MONEY on Rodgers.
The Packers failed to achieve a similar record or playoff progress. Rodgers failed to distinguish himself significantly from Favre statistically or in spectacular fashion. And, the final piece of the gaffe puzzle, the Packers paid Aaron Rodgers almost the same money as Favre. The very real possibility now exists that perhaps the biggest sports blunder in history, a title for which Ari Fleischer cannot claim responsibility, belongs to Packer management. It gets worse.
Any 'quarterback of the future' argument was almost universally misunderstood. The Packers nearly won the NFC championship game last year and would have advanced to the Super Bowl. 'Winning later' as a failed justification in this instance was a fatally flawed argument. Any 'winning later' option is hard countered by the fact that Brett could win two Super Bowls with another team. Earning an individual player game experience at the expense of 'winning now' is almost always a mistake UNLESS the season is essentially lost. When playoffs hopes fade, common sense dictates that that is the optimal time to gamble for individual player game experience, unless the player demonstrates depth chart advancement through conventional means, i.e. practice performance, starter non-performance, or contractual advantage. It gets worse.
There was another fatally flawed argument that was almost universally misunderstood. The dreaded Steve Young/Joe Montana comparison. Buried in the mountain of text comparing the similarity of the two situations, were the few details that rendered the comparison moot. Joe Montana was hurt, Steve Young won the league MVP in his absence, and Montana was traded to the Chiefs upon his healthy return the next year, a year Young won the Super Bowl with the 49'ers. While, the psychological similarities beg for causation, the cold hard reality in the NFL is that even a meticulously groomed fourth year first round player is not remotely similar to the MVP in any year. The iron man Favre has never missed a game, and Rodgers has never even been a late season candidate for MVP. It gets much worse.
Favre had three tremendous advantages in his trade negotiations with the Packers, full support of Commissioner Roger Goodell and the NFL in his desire to return to the NFL, a 2007 record of 13-3 with an NFC championship game appearance, and a failsafe, something the Packers didn't want to mention at all, a tremendous marketing and apparel revenue advantage.
Rodgers admirably cracked the top 25 at number 25 in jersey sales in 2008, but Favre is number ONE. The NFL only releases periodic seasonal rankings for apparel with no revenue numbers or overall sales quantities. A retired player's jersey sales net no revenue for the team under current NFL rules. But, from a marketing standpoint alone, the free team advertisement is golden. Any time the jersey is worn in public, it's free advertising. Of course, active player jerseys do net the team revenue. In fact, as a strange coincidence, Brett Favre negotiated his salary cap number for the Jets down to about 12 million, a process he has a tradition of doing to help his team in the past. The 12 million is coincidental to Aaron Rogers cap number for 2008, 12 million.
There is a secret double secret loophole which respectable reporters can't speculate on without risking credibility. Why did Favre negotiate such a favorable contract for the Jets when his future is tenuous? Maybe the Jets gave him a bigger piece of the pie on the TEAM cut of his apparel sales. Maybe that money doesn't count against the cap. Maybe the NFL doesn't care about any possible cap avoidance ethical issues since by definition the issue only involves a select few superstar players that sell a lot of apparel, which the NFL receives a full portion of proceeds regardless of player retirement status. The bottom line is that the NFL has zero reason to police those salary cap violations because the NFL has a direct financial gain from such activity. Furthermore, the NFLPA, the NFL Players Association, has zero reason to police those cap violations because the biggest payers in their organization are the direct beneficiaries of not asking questions.
Finally, the only complaining parties might be teams near the salary cap themselves, but greed wins and those teams would rather potentially exploit the loophole themselves at a later date and if scrutinized be able to point their finger at somebody else in the past who got away with it, just to confuse everybody on just who it was that was caught doing something wrong. Hey, greedy finger pointing is not even limited to the NFL by any means. Doesn't anybody remember when Kathy Lee Gifford got caught running 3rd world sweatshops and the first words out of her mouth were, 'Michael Jordan and Nike!'. Dear God, it's your fault for reading this far.
What may prove to be the biggest blunder in sports history, the trading of Brett Favre, was not actually consummated when the marriage acrimoniously split up and Brett Favre was traded to the Jets. The blunder was only fully realized when the Packers paid Aaron Rodgers 'Favre' money in a similar contract ten weeks later on NFL week 6.
Because an argument could be made that the Packers diminished fully as a team beyond reprieve, and Favre couldn't have helped the team much this season, does not justify the Packers' management decision making process that was in utter contrast to objective philosophical management. The team chose to pay Rodgers without ever knowing for certain, when, in retrospect, the team easily could have opted to pay Favre's original contract, or renegotiated a better cap number like the Jets were able to do, and most importantly freeze Rodgers at $667,000 and retain him as a backup or let him quit in the worst case scenario, the Packers had him under contract and the NFL was not about to intervene on behalf of Rodgers. Considering Rodgers could have been traded, as well, just further demonstrates the Packers almost illogical bias against Favre.
Two words - Trent Dilfer. NEITHER Favre nor Rodgers are likely among the NFL's elite quarterbacks in 2008. Neither was Super Bowl ring wearing Dilfer an elite quarterback. Neither was non-Super Bowl ring wearing Kyle Boller with his big time contract the next year after Dilfer earned his ring. Neither was Ravens coach Brian Billick's job, elite, that is. Ouch, it's still your fault for reading this far.
3. Paying Rodgers
"They need to get on board now, or keep their mouth's shut." From a team perspective, Brett Favre readjusted his contract favorably for the team enough times in his career to - apparently arrogantly but actually justifiably - state to the Green Bay Packers, 'You owe me.' Had the Packers opted to sign Favre, Rodgers would have been compelled to simply remain in fidelity with his current contractual obligation and serve as the Packers' backup quarterback. The fact that facing adversity in the past Favre usually generated a statement more like 'bet against me' said something about character, not to mention a little slip by Rodgers when he was faced with a training camp competition, referring to it as a 'dogfight' was probably ill advised. Doubtful Ari was consulted on that gaffe. He'd probably recommend bullets.
Paying Rodgers 'Favre money' in 2008 is philosophically problematic because there is no 'win later' philosophy except for the few losingest teams in the last weeks of the season (for draft order), and in the offseason that philosophy immediately reverts to 'win now'. Of course, Rodgers could win the Super Bowl next year, but player preference and bias cannot rule out that at the time of the posting Favre could win the Super Bowl this year AND next year. So, since Rodgers and Favre are inexorably intertwined in the situation, given the results so far in 2008 the only logical philosophical justification for trading Favre was saving money on Rodgers! Granted, the number of Packers players over performing an existing contract were few, BUT, the Green Bay Packers are a publicly owned team and money in the coffers means better staff and facilities. This isn't a defense budget and you don't have to spend the money or the budget gets reduced the next year. Don't have anybody to spend the money on? Save the money. Ultimately we are talking about county wide sales tax increases in development years because there isn't enough in the team coffers to cover stadium improvements. Simple enough?
Two words - Matt Cassell. Sure they have Brady recovering in the wings, but the Patriots opt not to try for a contract adjustment. Cassell is an amazing NFL value, and he doesn't brag by telling his opponents that he 'only reads half the field', either. He also doesn't hold the ball way too long and consistently eat needless sacks.
Two more words - Matt Ryan. No four years grooming needed. Or a fifth.
4. Paying Grant
Lacked receiving skills. Average blocker. Clutch long runs on short distance down to go yardage situations, especially in the playoff game against Seattle. HOWEVER, risk of fluke performance in 2007 was substantial enough to make showing him the money regardless of any holdout situation a big time blunder. 8/5/2008: Signed a four-year, $20 million contract.
Two words - Ahmad Bradshaw. 7/24/2007: Signed a four-year, $1.7 million contract.
Two more words - Brandon Jackson. Nope, Ryan Grant's backup is not better as pure runner, but his blocking is similar, and his pass catching skills provide the offense with some disguise in that the opposing defense has more uncertainty concerning both point and MANNER of attack. This factor makes Jackson every bit as effective a running back overall in comparison to Grant, at a much better price.
5. Paying Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila
Most over payed player in the league. Underrated in the over payed department. A part time player that broke down consistently. Failing to address the situation PRIOR to training camp was horrific.
The Packers had significant salary cap exposure on Kabeer regardless, but releasing him early enough could have led to him becoming another team's problem. No doubt no team would pay the full contract, but Kabeer might have settled for a longer term contract with similar guaranteed money, allowing the team to save cap space. Releasing Kabeer midseason precluded this possibility.
Two words - Dwight Freeney. The ultimate truth is that Kabeer was a classic NFL copycat attempt by the Packers in emulation of the Colts' Dwight Freeney. Please note, the Colts move their sack specialist around on the line of scrimmage to disguise his almost unapparent run stopping weakness, something the Packers failed to do with Kabeer.
6. Defensive Line
Kampman is slightly above average. Before injuries, the group still struggled. No secondary is safe without some pressure on the opposing quarterback.
Two words - Jared Allen.
7. Offensive Line
Two words - Zone Blocking Scheme. Ok. Three Words. Failed offensive philosophy given personnel. Ok. Five Words.
8. Punter Jon Ryan
Jon Ryan's last play as a Packer was a botched punt sprint for a first down during the final preseason game. A sensational play by a former sprinter, but an average NFL punter. Except something bad happened. An offensive lineman was hurt blocking on the play. Jon Ryan was released the next day. It wasn't a coincidence. A statement was made: Players are not to showcase their physical skills through intuition, they are to execute the play as called in every circumstance and failure to adhere to this mandate will result in teammates possibly getting injured, and the player being benched or released. The truth is that Jon Ryan's sprint for a meaningless first down while a teammate was injured on an awkward play was perhaps deserving of private reprimand. But releasing the player entirely just six days before the opener sent the wrong message to the team, especially when the replacement subsequently proved to be no better.
Quite simply, releasing Jon Ryan wound the team up tighter than the biggest ball of twine in Minnesota, and the missed extra point six days later - without Jon Ryan holding for the kicker - didn't quite cost the Packers the season opener, but it just might have cost them the season.
Two words - Derrick Frost.
9. Point-of-attack/Game Speed
While possessing good overall practice speed, the packers lacked game day speed in 2008. The Packers were consistently slower to the point of attack compared to their opponent on both sides of the ball. Packers' coaching staff emphasized pad-level, but they missed the crux of the issue. Great personnel can succeed with poor coaching. Poor personnel can succeed with great coaching. But, poor personnel cannot succeed with poor coaching. So, while the coaching staff emphasized 'pad level' and 'failure to execute' in post game interviews, the truth is that the plays as designed were not 'executable' by the personnel they had. It doesn't matter how fast a player runs if they spend too much time running in the wrong direction or at the wrong assignment, or, being in the right position to make a play, but failing to make the play. Replace the failing player, or change the play calling to fit STRENGTHS of the existing personnel. The philosophy that team chemistry, individual player performance, and play calling are not intricately related is not feasible in the NFL.
Two Words - Situational Awareness.
10. Tight End Utilization
Donald Lee actually looked fairly good this year. In a cruel twist of fate and irony, it appears Donald Lee might have just been somehow overlooked in the team's game plans or Rodgers' targeting preference. Apparently, Rodgers was usually not reading the side of the field that Donald Lee was open on, while processing about half of his overall available progressions.
Two words - Move Chains. Nobody is claiming tight ends in general had a great year in the 2008 NFL season, but in the NFL, if you want to move the chains with regularity you must utilize the tight end position consistently with no exceptions. With wide receiver Donald Driver on the decline and at least slightly overpaid, development of the tight end was a facet to the offense that could not be ignored or under-developed. |
