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Strategies & Market Trends : Quarter to Quarter Aggressive Growth Stocks

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From: Jack Hartmann1/1/2009 11:39:07 AM
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Portfolio down 37.7% for the quarter. Down 53.3% for the year

AMAT $15.95 to 10.13. Down 37.5%
SIRI $0.76 to 0.12. Down 84.0%
GS $81.85 to 84.39 Up 3.0%
LUV $12.35 to 8.62. Down 31.3%
CME $380.85 to 208.11. Down 45.3%
FCX $46.26 to 24.44. Down 47.1%
EP $11.17 to 7.83. Down 29.9%
WFC $37.84 to 29.48. Down 22.0%

Sold
GE $23.66 to 16.13. Down 31.8%
F $4.56 to 2.22. Down 51.3%

Average down 37.7%

A look if 10K was invested in each stock.
10 Stocks rotated in the Q4. (100K x 62.3)-100K = $37720 loss.
Or $53379 loss total for the year.

A look if 10K was invested in each stock.
15 Stocks rotated in the Q3. (150K x 88.8)-150K = $18000 loss.
Or $15659 loss total for the year.

A look if 10K was invested in each stock.
6 Stocks rotated in the Q2. (60K x 1.018)-60K = $1116 gain.
40k in the money market earned 0.75% this quarter or $300 profit.
Or $2341 profit total for the year.

1 Stocks rotated in the Q1. (10K x 1.03)-10K = $300 gain.
90k in the money market earned 0.75% this quarter or $625 profit.
Or $925 profit total for the quarter.

Dow – 13264 to 8776. Down 34% for the year
NASDAQ – 2652 to 1577. Down 41% for the year
S&P500 – 1468 to 903. Down 38% for the year

For the fourth quarter, we see Wachovia and National City going away.
The first two weeks of October should be painful. Then the market should do better.
The bailout is tricky. It should happen, but the market might be expecting too much


All predictions were right. My mistake was jumping in after the 20% drop. I decided to ride it out since it was a vertical drop and quit trading. I felt at the time, it was like 2000-2003 when over trading would make it much worse. It didn't matter. Stocks were toxic to the best traders. I never lost more than 15% in 20 years+ of trading. this year was a monster hit. 99% lost money. In hindsight, the best thing to do was to watch and not trade at all.

Cheers to 2009. I see a better first quarter but worsening economy in 2009 the rest. I plan to pare off the losers in the next few months. The $3000 annual tax selling loss seems paltry at this point.

Crude 44.60
Nat Gas 5.62
Milk 2.93
Gasoline 1.70
Gold 8.83
Silver 11.12
Copper 1.39
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