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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Spekulatius who wrote (33171)1/1/2009 12:14:26 PM
From: Spekulatius  Read Replies (1) of 78615
 
I am down 21% this year in my main IRA account. Trading and holding cash has helped quite a bit. My 410k account with limited choices is far worse.

I am very incertain about the next year it could be a good investment year or an very bad one. The economy is going to be far worse than any of us (at least for me my span dates back to 1982) has seen, I fear. I think the credit markets are slowly unthawing, at least for some better credits. Financials are probably the iffiest prospects - on one hand we have low interest rates but on the other hand we have a economy that has fallen off the cliff and while the subprime loans have to been written off (I think) a new batch of subprime is created every time the housing prices go down or a retailer goes out of business. I would not be surprised if banks would essentially get nationalized in the US.

I think the current calm period with reduced volatility will end very soon. Maybe that is already an off topic rant here but I am gravitating away from a pure value approach and try to include the market psychology as well as the macro picture in my investment approach.
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