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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 298.01

-0.5%

Dec 15 4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (42433)	1/1/2009 7:44:35 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) of 95579

HI Don, Happy New Year! As always thank you for your excellent analysis,graphs,and summary. I will make my usual comment that tech gets painted with far too wide a brush. Semi chips have 2 huge groups: Logic and memory Both are seen to be in a transitionary mode. Memory is transitioning from hard drives to software drives and Logic is transitioning to 32nm and SOC from generally die shrinks down to the 45nm being accomplished in 08. As always the leading edge is a game for a select few, But as leading edge is accompplished the second tier will closely follow so as not to get too far behind.The last any 2nd tier IC maker wants to become is a commodity maker. This year will start slowly and I suspect much like the turn we saw in 98 we may well see in late 2009 or 2010. Just a thought and have a great New Year. Bob

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