From the ECRI:
U.S. Recession Will Persist For The Time Being
Reuters
January 02, 2009
(Reuters) - NEW YORK, Jan 2 (Reuters) - A measure of future economic growth in the United States and its annualized growth rate rose in the latest week but were still near all-time lows, a sign that an end to the recession is still out of sight, a research group said on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose in the week ended Dec. 26, to 108.0 from 106.8 in the previous week, which was revised from 106.6.
The index's annualized growth rate ticked up to negative 28.7 percent from minus 29.2 percent.
"Despite a three-week uptick, WLI growth remains close to its all-time low seen in early December, which tells us that the recession will persist for the time being," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.
The weekly index rose due to lower jobless claims and stronger housing, but the uptick was partly offset by weaker stock prices, Achuthan said.
ECRI is perhaps the only organisation to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm.
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