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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 285.23

-3.7%

4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (42433)	1/2/2009 9:32:18 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) of 95596

A drop of 50% from 2008 would put 2009 Semi billings in the $6 to $7 Billion dollar range! This would be over 25% below 2003's #s. OUCH! Talk about bearish... Now the question that comes up next, imo. Has most of this been priced in? Looking at the chart in your post, Don, the drop in 2002 was based on the growing realization that there would be a serious, extended collapse in the SCE market during 2002-2003. Billings fell from $17B in 2001 to $10B in 2003. Once the market realized that 2003 wasn't going to be the end of the industry, the stocks rebounded. Fast forward and billings have fallen from $18.5B in 2007 to $12.5B in the first 11 months of 2008. Another 50% drop would imply half of $13B(ish) or $6.5B(ish). We still have everyone looking down into 2009. At some point we need to look past this into 2010. jmo TO

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