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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 366.51+1.2%Nov 5 4:00 PM EST
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To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (44621)1/3/2009 6:11:30 AM
From: elmatador  Read Replies (1) of 217547
 
I believe in 'The Set of Circumstances'. Since 'The Set of Circumstances' keeps moving with time, it cannot be captured in models.

'The Set of Circumstances' doesn't lend itself to analysis. It only can be recognized by historians. Historians are not useful to the market because they deal with the past while markets need someone to tell them the future as history.

For example: Bernanke is an expert in the Depression but that has not helped him dealing with the present. Generals prepare to fight the past war.

Once a given 'Set of Circumstances' sets in and it is recognized and made use of it it creates a force that takes decades to wear off.

'The Set of Circumstances' delivered on a plate to the US gave it a good 100 years of wealth:

'The Set of Circumstances' for the US was: Large territory, millions of pliable poor people ready to move in, science blossoming, landmass away from the old powers' invasion. France (enemey of its enemy Britain) was its friend. All competiton wipped out in two wars.
That set of circumstances pput the US where it stood for the past cetury.

That 'Set of Circumstances' having now disappeared, the US is returning to its natural size (some 15% of world GDP). No surprise of the deflation, re-pricing re-balancing or whatever we wish to call it.

Since I know already that, I am just working out the new 'Set of Circumstances' and seeing who is going to come out on top.
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