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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Spekulatius who wrote (33190)	1/3/2009 11:32:46 AM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (4) of 78613

I am soliciting input for short plays ideas for Y2009. Some stuff I am tossing out: SPG (51.5$) - Mall giant with a still rich valuation. Decently financed but FFO will see headwinds for a couple of years. Increased cost of funding. Value of real estate portfolio may shrink such that debt is 70% of EV. HDB (76.7$)- Indian bank trading at 19x forward earnings. RE boom in India is popping and banks like HDB will be left holding the bag. FWIW i read about a year ago that RE in Mumbai was just as expensive as in western capitals like Paris, London by some measures. the recent attacks will not help either. TBT (39$)- ETF short play on treasuries.Inflation worries or worries about high debt load will cause a rise in yield for treasuries. XOM (81.6$) - too expensive for 40$ crude. Use as a hedge to balance out long position in cheaper oil stocks.

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